A cooler and unsettled pattern of weather will be making its way to Airdrie and the surrounding areas in the coming week. But does this mean that snow and a lot of it, will be a part of the forecast?

Justin Shelley, a Warning Preparedness Meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) said weather models into next week are not nearly as predictable as short-term forecasts, but he underlined that the first week of October will be a departure from the warm, dry weather.

"This Friday, we start to see an upper trough move in, which is going to produce some unsettled conditions, some precipitation, likely some snowfall [is] possible, West of Calgary towards the Mountain Parks, especially over the higher terrain," Shelley said. "However, not anticipating quite as of a significant event late this week into the weekend as the potential system for next week."

Models for next week's forecast are slightly contradictory, as one major model does forecast snow, while the other forecasts rain.

Shoulder seasons are defined by meteorologists as the months of March, April, September, October, and November. In these seasons, snowfall in temperatures above zero degrees is not uncommon, especially in Alberta.

"The problem is two or three degrees at the surface has a huge impact on how much potential snowfall we could see. If the temperature is one or two degrees above zero, you can still get a significant amount of snow, but two or three degrees higher, upwards of five degrees, then you're going to struggle to get the accumulating snowfall, especially with the warm weather we've had recently."

Shelley said that while there is the potential for large amounts of snow by the end of next week, he said there are too many variables at play to be certain. Historically, he said that the Calgary region has recorded four days of snow in October, while in the past, September has seen one and a half days of snow. 

"We've already passed a point where we have seen the first typical snowfall in Calgary [and the surrounding areas]. From this point in, it's not abnormal, to have at least that first snowfall. In terms of a more significant snowfall - we're talking about at least five centimetres of snow - we don't see that until later in October, possibly into November."

Shelley reminded residents, that Alberta weather, as it's wont to do - is unpredictable, and residents should be prepared for any sort of weather in the coming weeks. 

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